Analyzing 2016.

Axiom Strategies, in collaboration with Remington Research Group, has studied election results in eight battleground states to identify Axiom’s Battleground Counties. These counties historically reflect statewide results, so monitoring them will be key in analyzing the 2016 presidential race. In October, Axiom and RRG also began surveying statewide in all eight Battleground States. Check back regularly for the latest polling in these crucial states and counties.

NOTES: Beginning Sept. 8th, Axiom added three new Battleground Counties in order to track the race in an additional swing state, Wisconsin, and monitor whether Sandusky Co. (OH) and Luzerne Co. (PA) may be outliers to their historically predictive nature.



Recent Polling

STATEWIDE RESULTS (Updated 11/3)

State

Click for latest full survey

Oct. 23rd

Oct. 30th

Nov. 3rd Statewide Results

Spread

Clinton

Trump Spread

Clinton

Trump Spread
Colorado Clinton +2 45% 44% Clinton +1 42% 41% Clinton +1
Florida TIED 44% 48% Trump +4 45% 48% Trump +3
Nevada Trump +3 44% 48% Trump +4 45% 46% Trump +1
North Carolina Trump +3 45% 47% Trump +2 45% 48% Trump +3
Ohio Trump +4 43% 48% Trump +5 44% 45% Trump +1
Pennsylvania Clinton +3 45% 43% Clinton +2 46% 45% Clinton +1
Virginia Clinton +5 47% 43% Clinton +4 46% 44% Clinton +2
Wisconsin Clinton +5 46% 42% Clinton +4 49% 41% Clinton +8
Analysis Analysis >> Analysis & Key Findings <<

BATTLEGROUND COUNTY RESULTS (Updated 10/23)

State

County

Click for details

June 6th

July 15th

Sept. 8th

October 23rd County Results

Spread Spread Spread

Clinton

Trump Spread
Colorado Jefferson County Clinton +4 Trump +1 Clinton +2 44% 41% Clinton +3
Florida Hillsborough County Trump +2 Trump +3 Trump +1 46% 44% Clinton +2
Nevada Washoe County Trump +12 Trump +12 Trump +17 43% 49% Trump +6
North Carolina Watauga County Trump +4 Trump +7 Trump +8 42% 46% Trump +4
Ohio Sandusky County Trump +5 Trump +11 Trump +7 42% 47% Trump +5
Hamilton County Clinton +1 44% 45% Trump +1
Pennsylvania Luzerne County Trump +17 Trump +23 Trump +15 41% 52% Trump +11
Northampton County Trump +8 46% 43% Clinton +3
Virginia Loudoun County Clinton +8 Clinton +3 Clinton +2 49% 41% Clinton +8
Wisconsin Door County Clinton +9 48% 41% Clinton +7

>> LATEST Analysis & State-by-State Key Findings <<
>> Analysis Thru 10/30 <<
>> Analysis Thru 10/23 <<

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Axiom's Battleground Counties



How did we find the Battleground Counties?

Beginning in early 2016, Axiom Strategies set out to find a select group of counties that have historically been indicators for statewide presidential election results. We analyzed individual county election results dating back to 2000 in order to select areas that best fit our criteria. The search began by identifying counties that had correctly predicted the statewide result in each of the last four presidential elections. We then chose the counties that consistently matched the overall statewide result within a few percentage points. Seven counties that reside in seven battleground states fit our criteria and were initially selected to be Axiom’s Battleground Counties.

SEPTEMBER ADDITIONS In September, three new counties were added to expand the ABC tracking into an eighth swing state, Wisconsin, and monitor whether the original Battleground Counties in Pennsylvania (Luzerne Co.) and Ohio (Sandusky Co.) may be outliers to their historically predictive nature.

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